Capitals vs Lightning Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight - NHL

The Washington Capitals are fresh off a 6-2 win over the Devils, and now they'll look to pull off another upset when they fly into Florida to do battle with the Tampa Bay Lightning. 

NHL odds have the Bolts pegged as the home favorites, but I'll be looking at the NHL player props rather than choosing a side for my best bet.

In a game filled with multiple offensive studs, find out which one I'll be backing in my free NHL picks for Capitals vs. Lightning on Thursday, February 22.

Capitals vs Lightning odds

Capitals vs Lightning predictions

Father time always wins, and it looks like it has finally caught up with Alexander Ovechkin. The captain of the Washington Capitals had a horrendous first half to the season, but it looks like the positive regression we expected to come is finally here.

Ovechkin had a shooting percentage of 14.3% last year where he potted 42 goals in 73 games, a far cry from the 9% he's sporting through 51 games. With a career shooting percentage of 12.8% and the volume still there — 3.49 shots per game — the numbers are finally evening out.

Ovi has 16 goals this season, but eight of those have come over the last eight Games — including two against New Jersey his last time out. In that same window, Ovechkin's shooting percentage stands at a blistering 25.8% on 3.9 shots per Game. It's not like he's taking a ton more shots, they're just finally finding the back of the net. 

Another promising trend over the last eight Games has been Ovechkin's success on the power play. Four of his last eight goals have come on the man advantage, and Washington's PP is operating at a 33% clip over the last eight outings. That's a massive jump from its season average of 16.3%, and now it gets a chance at the Tampa Bay Lightning — the fifth-most penalized team in the NHL (11.6 penalty minutes per Game).

As for Tampa's netminder, it hasn't been confirmed as of Thursday morning but all signs are pointing to Andrei Vasilevskiy getting the nod. In any other year that may pose issues, but this is not the same Vasy we've seen in the past. The 29-year-old is sporting a career-worst save percentage (.898 SV%) and goals against average (2.94 GAA). 

He also isn't coming into this Game in the best form after allowing 10 goals on 50 shots over his last two outings. With Ovechkin's shooting numbers trending upwards and Vasy's numbers going the opposite way, I'm backing "The Great 8" to score his ninth tally in as many Games at an awesome price of +155.

My best bet: Alex Ovechkin anytime goalscorer (+155 at DraftKings)

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Capitals vs Lightning same-game parlay

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Alex Ovechkin anytime goalscorer

Ovechkin 3+ shots on goal

Over 5.5

+260 +338 at bet365

Just to be on the safer side, I'm going to play a couple of alt totals with my best bet. Ovechkin has crossed the shot total of 3.5 just four times over his last eight games, but he's had at least three in each outing over that same span. The last time Ovi failed to reach 3+ shots was when he was held to zero against the Avs all the way back on January 24.

The Capitals have seen at least six goals in eight of their last 10 games, and with the offense playing better of late, it seems the defense has taken a hit. As for the Lightning, they've also seen at least six tallies in eight of their last 10. 

Without the play of Vasilevskiy being able to bail them out, the Bolts' offense has had to step up and is averaging 3.39 goals per game. The total of 6.5 seems tempting, but I'll gladly take some added juice for the extra cushion.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Capitals vs Lightning moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Lightning opened as -200 favorites yesterday afternoon, and currently sit at -190. The Caps are coming off a 6-2 beatdown of the Devils, so that may have swayed a bit of money their way. 

As for the total, some books opened it up at 6 with plus money on the Under, while others opened at 6.5 with plus money on the Over. There are still a few Over 6s out there around the -125 range, while the majority of 6.5s are paying -115 for the Under. Depending on how you think this game will play out, be sure to shop around for the best number.

Capitals vs Lightning betting trend to know

Alex Ovechkin has scored in seven of his last eight games. Find more NHL betting trends for Capitals vs. Lightning.

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Capitals vs Lightning game info

Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, Florida
Date: Thursday, February 22, 2024
Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
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